It’s pretty high. It actually has happened the last several Fedora releases now.
We’ve had the following transitions off the cuff:
- File Roller removal (F34/G40)
- GEdit → GNOME Text Editor (F36/G42)
- Removal of GNOME Screenshot (F36/G42)
- Eye of GNOME → Loupe (F39/G45)
- Cheese → GNOME Snapshot (F40/G46)
- GNOME Terminal → Ptyxis (F41/G47)
- Add Decibels (F42/G48)
- Totem → Showtime (F43/G49)
- Evince → Papers (F43/G49)
The terminal transition is probably the one where the case happened where we had aborted the transition once to another app (GNOME Console). In this world, GNOME Console would have to remain in our filter list permanently.
I think it’s fairly reasonable to expect apps to churn out across Fedora releases in the future too.